Add draft_backtest: replay a real past ESPN draft, round by round
Consolidates the backtest work from this session into a permanent, reusable tool instead of one-off scripts. Given a league_id and season, it: - Builds a leak-free board for that season via build_player_table's existing season bound -- only data from strictly before it, same discipline matchup_backtest uses. - Replays the real ESPN draft in order (auto-detecting your team and draft slot from ESPN_SWID/ESPN_S2, league settings read straight from ESPN via the new espn_league_context). - At each of your picks, reports three things scored on real points from that season: what who_should_i_pick's algorithm would have recommended given the real board at that exact moment, the true hindsight-optimal pick by value over replacement, and what you actually took. QB is hard-capped at 1 on the optimal side (_OPTIMAL_POSITION_CAPS): a second quarterback scores zero in a 1-QB starting lineup except bye weeks, so ranking it by raw points or even league-wide VOR overstates it hugely -- who_should_i_pick already reaches this conclusion live via _positional_need's BACKUP_DECAY, this just enforces it as a hard cap since the optimal side isn't running that pipeline. K/DST aren't modelled anywhere in this tool, so those rounds report your actual pick with no comparison, and are excluded from the point totals (comparing your None against algo/optimal's real skill-position pick would inflate their totals unfairly. Verified against three real seasons (2023-2025) of an actual ESPN league during development; numbers match the manual analysis exactly. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> EOF )
Z
zacharytran26 committed
fa7e451bd197de06e51c84b48aa2877da40676b3
Parent: 85f5550